Ask the Analyst - August 2026 - Your Questions Answered

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:07

Alright, well, welcome to this August session of Ask the Analyst. Hopefully uh everyone can see and hear me. And as usual, it's up to you guys where we go in terms of this presentation and this webinar. This is all open to you in terms of your questions. Just bear in mind though, it is general advice only. So please do your own research, contact your own financial advisor regarding any of the thoughts, ideas, or insights in this podcast. All right, well, as far as well, not podcast, is it? This is uh a webinar, really, I guess. So uh hopefully you can all uh see and hear me. I'll just check. We'll just kick off as always with a small um, I guess slight presentation. And uh this is part of the one that I gave to the Australian uh independent retirees, which I must admit I haven't uh really heard of before. But I did do a presentation for them this morning, and uh it was uh interesting to say the least. We went through where we are in terms of the market, and here we are at record highs in the uh ASX 200. It's been a pretty good week, 3.2% higher this week. It has been, I called it the Stephen Bradbury of Global Markets at the moment because where others have been uh concentrating on AI and tech and have fallen over at various points in the last week or so, or the last month or so, uh, we have cruised up towards these record highs, which is a bit of catch-up to say the least. And we are on the cusp of reporting season, of course, and this will bring an induced amount of volatility to the market, and certainly something that we saw in February with a massive amount of volatility in uh individual stocks. So it is um the killing season as I call it, and uh certainly it does tend to live up to its name. Uh, we are approaching the season, and we're gonna get the CBA results. They're the biggest bank and the uh one of the biggest components, the ASX, they'll be uh reporting very shortly. So, as a result, we are gonna see. Well, hopefully, we're not gonna get a repeat of the last set of numbers where we saw a 10% fall, but the banks are expensive. That big bank basket uh in terms of the market. Um, we have been tracking for a long, long time. I created it many, many moons ago when you could buy all four banks for a hundred bucks. We're close to three hundred now, two hundred and ninety-five dollars and ninety cents it was today. Um, so that is um that's been quite extraordinary. That's not taking into account any dividends. We are seeing as well this week, we've seen a big recovery in resources. Uh, just to give you a clue, my resource buyers small cap portfolio is up nearly 7% this week. So it has been doing uh, I guess what it's supposed to be doing, and to some extent it has rewarded uh patience and uh just holding on when uh when it had looked a little bit um nasty at times. The other thing, of course, we're seeing is the bond markets, and even today we got 10-year yields above five percent again for the Australian market. So that is uh interesting. And uh, I saw news on CNBC that uh we had um the Federal Reserve Chief Kevin Walsh uh talking about having less uh Fed meetings, which will be interesting. Um less Fed meetings, but uh yes, he's certainly going to be shaking things up. All right, and we've also, of course, we're seeing passive investing at record levels. ETFs, the flow of money into ETFs has been extraordinary. More and more ETFs are listing by the day. Um, and we had three recently uh quantum and robotics uh based ones. So that is driving markets. Remember that it for uh you know 25% of our market here in Australia is the big four banks. So every hundred bucks that goes into some sort of index hugging passive ETF is going, uh 25 bucks of that is going into the um four banks, and of course, what has been driving the market has been reporting season, which in the US has been an absolute cracker, it has been a standout, but we have seen some quite violent reactions in terms of um the market reactions, and uh we saw it with SpaceX, we've seen it with a number of companies, we even saw it to the upside uh in Alassian last night, which were up 32 percent on the back of their numbers, so it has been quite extraordinary in some respects. Uh, here's my uh I guess it's a somewhat simplistic cartoon chart that I've been running with in the newsletter for some time. With that target I had of 9200 as the record high, we've surpassed that. And uh I have um I guess I have toyed with the um but the the um the thought of taking some profits wholesale across the board and locking in some of these gains, but uh for the moment I'm letting things run. So um we'll see how it pans out. But um the market does tend to, and if you look back at the last um high, the all-time high which we saw back in February, that was at the back end of reporting season. And I grew the great thing about this reporting season is we are going into this reporting season with very low expectations as opposed to the US reporting season, where we have gone in with very high expectations. Um, so there we go. Um, so that is something to think about. I loved this little uh AI-generated image of a back to the future that um I got ChatGPT to um to come up with. It's um it's got the dock and it's got Marty, of course, and the almanac and the uh the shoes and even the hoverboard, which my son, when he was small and we watched this film, he was convinced that a hoverboard was actually a real thing, and and I had to make him one or at least buy him one. Um, I did struggle to explain to him. I think he was uh very young, three or four years old, that uh hoverboards don't really exist. So um that was um an interesting um conversation we had when he was that age. But what it does highlight, I guess, is that volatility that we have seen uh in the uh earnings season, and February was no exception. So um without further ado, um we're just gonna have uh we're starting to get a few questions coming through. Thankfully, I thought that we were gonna get no no questions this evening, in which case it would be a very short, very short ask the analyst session, but uh there are a few questions coming through now, and uh it is um first off the cab off the rank, I guess, is um is a stock Tasmia, uh, which is uh from uh red. Uh no, not red. Um Bernie, uh Benny, Benny and the Jets, good to hear from you again as always, Benny. Um, and we are first cab off the rank with Tasmia. I'll just get the chart up there uh for uh Tasmia and uh I've put it in black today so hopefully uh you can see uh the um see the charts a little better. Um but um Tasmir T E A is the stock code, has done pretty well. They've recently made uh an acquisition there, and um they are well the the last acquisition JPS Group Acquisition uh services provider to the Australian energy sector. Uh Tasmir is one of those uh infrastructure stocks. I have to say it does fly a little bit under the radar uh in terms of the market, and it's it's been a bit of a sleeper, but it has been doing quite well. Um, it does focus on central shutdown program maintenance, uh, emergency breakdown according to the blurb, mining resources, oil and gas, and data centers as well, which has been uh one of the drivers of this one. So it has been going uh quite well, I have to say, and uh whether that continues remains to be seen. But it's a 2.4 billion dollar company. We've had a change of director's interest recently with Stephen Young. Uh he has uh acquired uh some shares, that's always a good sign there. It'd be nice to see a bit more research in this one, as I say, it has kind of flown under the uh the radar a little bit, certainly flown under my radar. Um, I have looked at some of these um data center uh and infrastructure stocks before the likes of SKS, which we've done uh very well in, and uh did sell some uh at uh $8.40 a little while ago um and had been looking to get back in. I missed my chance when it got down to seven bucks recently, but um no doubt there'll be another chance there. So Tasmia, yes, uh I think um Benny, you can probably hold that one for the time being. Uh nothing particularly wrong with it. Uh Clarity Pharmaceutical, pharmaceutical stocks and drug companies generally. Uh I saw a Vita today had uh a big run uh today. So that um that is good. This is a straight one billion dollar uh market cap, and uh we are seeing some interest reappear in uh in some of these biotechs. And uh, I'm just looking through the last presentation. Um, we have created a few blockbusters, and I guess when you look at what's happening in terms of the big farmers getting together, that could be uh quite significant uh going into the market. So um we've seen it in the likes of Dimerics, which has picked up, and my favorite, of course, which has been Nurine Pharmaceutical, which has done extraordinarily well, as uh many members will know. It's been a hard hold at times and has required now. My um system is going a little slow at the moment, it has required uh patience and fortitude, but it has done okay. All right, we'll move on. But CU pharmaceutical doesn't look too bad. Uh BCI minerals is the next one. That's from RED, a coming-of-age WA-based salt miner that should have first shipment soon. Looking to sell access to its port. Doesn't seem to be anything wrong with that. Recently presented at the NUSA Mining Conference there, has been on a little bit of a trot uh to say the least with uh BCI minerals. What I would say at the moment we are seeing a little bit of a renaissance in these uh these more specy stocks, I guess. Um we are seeing, you know, even today, um one of the uh spective stock of the day was a tungsten stock AT4, I think it was, which is American tungsten, and the name said it all. So um that is um in play. You've gotta remember to uh to lighten the load as these things go up because inevitably uh they do sometimes. Well, that's a bit of a uh tautology, but they do tend to raise money. There are nothing more hungry for money in this world these days than data in terms of the AI build out and mining stocks, which you give a miner money, they'll drill something, trust me. So um you'd need to uh concentrate on that. But uh the uh the projects uh where have we got? So they got available liquidity of 435 million. Uh they got customer agreements in place. This is uh salt, the world needs salt. Um, and I guess, yeah, in that respect, there's not too many salt companies out there, so maybe stick with it. Uh excuse me, red. Um, hi Henry, DB with 40 trillion in US debt fast approaching in September, the possibility of markets going to custard. What are the possible scenario strategies for share investments, current holdings? Um Dion, well, yes, I I think you'll find Dion that basically um you know the whole premise of investing is is all about risk and quantifying that risk. And you know, I've been around in this market, um, in the Australian market and the UK market for many a long moon. And I have to say, you know, there are times when uh the risk reward is not in your favor, but you know, this is not this is not the dot-com boom of of 2000. This is this is not what we're seeing at the moment. These are real companies with real money, with real profits, uh, with real cash flow. They are spending huge amounts of money, but I think sometimes it it is um you can be a little bit too cute. Um, I'm not sure, you know, they always say, well, I always say that even the pretty girls get killed in the bus crash, and certainly we've seen in recent months one vehicle of liquidity has been the gold sector, and people have been quite happy to uh sell gold miners and sell bullion down to get that liquidity to help buy the dip in other sectors. So I'm not sure sell everything, buy back in lower or buy gold companies is really the answer. I think um if I was uh in the derivatives world as I used to be, I'd certainly be uh looking at some downside protection. And when you look at the fixed volatility index in the US, downside protection, especially in the US, is not exactly expensive. But I think you know, generally the starting stuff. You know, Telstra are very inward facing, coals and woolies, both the same inward facing. So there's nothing wrong in terms of um you know those if you are feeling nervous. But as I say, um high risk is well, risk and reward are a delicate balancing act. I mean, Telstra has actually been uh pretty much of a doggy uh in recent times as the market's gone up. Telstra hasn't really performed. But um, you know, I've uh I have some concerns about the market, and we do tend to climb that wall of worry. Bull markets tend to do that. We all know that. We all get a little more worried as we get higher and higher. But when you look at uh the US market, it has it has kind of crashed and it dealt with that crash. There was big rotations out of semis, we saw a massive pullback in semis, and the market kind of dealt with it. We've kind of dealt with the war, we've dealt with um higher yields, and I suspect some of it is the summer silly season, and we are going to see um more normal uh worries return in September. 40 trillion is a lot of money, but um yeah, we'll see. But uh, I'm not um I'm not panicking just yet. Uh James, uh Lion Town was a great tow-dip recommendation. Thanks. Thoughts on increasing weighting. Uh yeah, I I was a little bit too cautious, I think, there, James. And uh it was it was a signal, and I guess it was up to other uh up to people really how much they uh allocated that as a risk reward. But it did seem to me that it had got uh very, very, very oversold. I know the latest results were what weren't particularly good, um, and certainly that did cause the market to crash. But when you look at the the chart when it comes up, and I put a little bull there on the on the chart where I bought them, I think it was 102, but it has been almost textbook in terms of uh crashing down, and it does look, you know, when you look at um you know back here in November, October 2025, it was a similar level and went. I I remember playing this one. Um got in, got out, thought I did really well, and then it just went for an almighty run. Certainly, lithium has uh switched around a little bit, a little bit in uh in recent days, um in terms of sentiment. So I'm gonna stick with it. I probably won't add to it, but uh, if it was to pull back to maybe uh $1.5, $1.10, I may add to it more. Hi Hugh, how are you? Nice to talk to you, nice of you to join us. Always an absolute pleasure to talk to you. AYA ARATREA. Um, this was one that um the people at Minotor Capital um were very keen on. Uh, I've just pulled up the chart and I did have four bucks was time to buy. Well, it was time to buy, um, and um I I I kind of missed it. Um, unfortunately, there's there's only me doing this, and sometimes when I'm out of the office, I I do miss things. The markets do move quite quickly, and um I try and be upfront and honest with people in terms of what goes in and what comes out of the portfolio. And it's if it doesn't trade when I'm around there to do it, it's it I don't really want to put it in in hindsight and sort of just pretend that I was a genius because um that doesn't seem fair, but I did have it as a buy. I'd still buy it, Hugh. Um certainly buy it on any pullback, it has fallen back a long, long way. Um, so that has been good. Um, so um yeah, I would be a buyer here of that one. I I still like the med tech space um EIQ, uh, they've fallen back a long way. Um I bought some of those the other day. Uh I bought them, I think it was um was it $1.38. I think I I paid for those uh officially in the uh in the portfolio. They then had uh a big, big run. I I put these little um these things on the on the charts uh sometimes um when I put them in the newsletter as uh a bit of a guide. Sometimes I action them, sometimes I miss them, as I say, because I'm not always here. But uh I do like EIQ. Had a bit of a bad day today, probably more profit-taking than anything else. It is a Friday, and a lot of people do square up their books ahead of the weekend. As we know, Mr. Trump does have a tendency to um do stuff over the weekend, and then we have to wait till Sunday night for it all to be reversed. Uh so anyway, I I do like AYA uh Hugh. So thanks for the question. Steve Fraser asks your thought on ResMed. Well, everybody knows, everyone who's followed me uh on Osbys and various other channels, um, has known of my dislike of ResMed for so many reasons. And I have been a bear for a long, long time. And uh everybody I talk to in the industry, every fund manager, every broker, every analyst loves ResMed, always loved ResMed, a bit like CSL, and all they did was go down. And I get uh emails uh weekly from New South Wales CPAP in terms of their offerings, and New South Wales CPAP shops uh tending to be backed by ResMed, but they do sell other machines as well. Um, and there are some Chinese knockoffs that are coming in at significantly discounted prices. And the Air Sense 11 came on when it first started being sold, it was 2100 bucks. Now you can pick it up for 1600 bucks, a free mask, and a set of steak knives to go with it. So I have been quite bearish, however, as with all things, stocks are not numbers on doors, things do change, and there does come get to be prices where they are attractive. And I did suggest in the newsletter and on television as well, and Nadine was um almost aghast as I uh was uh saying this to her that between 26 and 27 bucks was a good entry price, and my target was 30. It did go higher, it went to 32 dollars. So I'm sorry I was a bit wrong on that one. The results were um not particularly bad, not particularly good either, but we did see some margin compression, and clearly they're suffering with the electronics inflation that we're seeing in terms of the goodies that go into the machine that blows smoke up, uh not smoke, blows air up your nose. So um they have suffered today. I suspect that they will drift back more, um, but I would say that $26 level uh would be a place to be uh to be buying them again. So although I'm a little bit bearish on them, I think um I think there is a time to buy and there is a time to sell, and they're probably locking themselves into a bit of a trading range between 26 bucks and 32 bucks there. As far as Vulcan goes, my good buddy um Francis Devine uh Wadeen uh who is the uh the chair there and the founder of Vulcan. I guess the problem with Vulcan is the sexiness has gone out of them. Um it has been trending lower for a while, and it is not a sexy story. Um, it is a lithium and geothermal company in the Rhine Valley. I'm not sure how the water levels in the Rhine will affect the geothermal uh base. Maybe I should uh email uh Francis and ask him that question. Uh they do have a new CEO who's very experienced in building stuff, and this is a building story, this is a construction story. They've got the money, they've got the funds, the EU's backed them. We know the lithium story is gonna live for a long time to come, so there's no problem. In that respect, with it, but it has become a very, I wouldn't say unsexy story, but it is just now about construction. The interesting thing I saw recently was Amanda Lacarse has joined the board. Now Amanda has done an extraordinary job with um Linus, and my friend there was an investor relations person. And they, when she was uh appointed CEO, he said to me, mate, she's tough as teak, and this will um be a massive success. And you've only got to look at the linus share price. Let's get rid of the um the news feed on um on um market tech, but you've only got to look at the liner's share price, uh, maybe not so much recently, but over uh the longer period of time, and uh you know Amanda has done a pretty good job. So the fact that she's taken on a board roll at Vulcan for me is uh a big tick of approval, but it does require patience because it is a construct, it's like building you know anything big, it takes a long time and it probably costs more money. Um, Andrews iPad to everyone, your view on zip and satire coming reporting. I haven't even thought about satire for a long time. Um, I still like zip, it's still in the small cap portfolio. There's still, you know, the American economy is going pretty much gangbusters still. Uh, it is a K-shaped and bifurcated economy to some extent. Uh, the XYZ results took a little bit of the gloss off them today. They were down around 3.4%. There is a big short position in zip, so they do tend to have um you know volatile and and the velocity sometimes is quite large. Most analysts have got a valuation over four bucks. US obviously is the big key to zip uh and driving the growth there. And the other key when the results do come out will be um will be the bad debts. We do need to see the bad debts uh coming down and under control. They did have a bit of a blowout at times with that because they introduced some new product um new sort of product lines which um encourage some less worthy credit applicants, shall we say, maybe subprime uh people to apply for buy now pay later. But it is a thing, it is getting bigger. I wouldn't be surprised actually to see some consolidation in the space. Andrew, as far as uh satire goes, I really never like this one. I've made my um made my views on satire pretty clear. Um, I can't believe anybody in their right mind pays a thousand bucks for a t-shirt, but people do. Um I'd rather go to Kmart and pay five bucks for a t-shirt or get one like this from Marcus today. Absolutely free, limited edition. So I'll be steering clear of satire, um, I have to say. Um, GG to everyone, uh try again with Chinese AI companies doing as well as and cheaper. Have you looked at investing in Chinese technology ETFs? No is the answer. Um, I'm sure Marcus has looked at it. I don't do ETFs really to uh to that extent. Uh obviously, the Chinese techs are doing well. I don't really know enough about them. There's what two and a half thousand stocks on the Australian Stock Exchange. That's enough for me. I don't need to go and research Chinese technology stocks. There are plenty out there, um, but not for me, I'm afraid. Um, as a theme, yeah, maybe, maybe I should look at them, but um, I have to say there's there's a lot to do and a lot to cover, and I'm sure Marcus has looked at them, and we have toyed with them at times, as we have toyed with um with other Asian uh markets like um Japan, etc. Um, but um we have um in the past not um stuck to really what what we know and what the names that we understand, I guess, to some extent in terms of US technology stocks. I hope that answers your question. As I say, I'm not really an ETF kind of guy. Um, Sonia asks, uh, if I may ask, that's very polite of you, Sonia. Thank you for asking the question. Alcoa AAI. Um obviously, this is um the uh aluminium company, and uh it took over uh the Australian uh operations, it took it over Holus Bolus, so it is now uh one. It is more, I guess. Let's just have a look at the volumes. Um, it is obviously uh more um an American stock in some respects, and aluminium, etc., has um has been interesting in terms of the Gulf and what's been happening there. So they have had some some issues, uh, I believe uh there. Um I'm just looking at oh gee. One of the great things about um one of the great things about um market tech, uh which I do use, is that it's um it's really good in reminding you what you said on Osbys because it does have a feed uh there and it does have news in terms of what you said. So uh back on the 14th of July, uh where are we? Um there was uh the first of July, rather. Um, I said cautious optimism. Uh I was on with Jonathan uh Takadina from uh MPC Markets. Uh we focused on commitment to the bauxite sector, highlighting recent business strategies, cautious wait and see, noting that although a cow alcal appears a long-term buy opportunity, short-term uncertainty and downward trend warrant a hold or avoid stance. Well, that was back on the 1st of July. Um, and since then it's gone down and then back up again. So I I think that probably sums it up, really. I'm I'm cautious on it to say the least. Um, Peter McFall says, Henry, you ponder why gold surged this week. It seems to be a delayed reaction to the Japanese currency intervention by Japan and the US. Was it? Okay, great. Thank you for letting me know that. Um if it is a delayed reaction to that, then given that the intervention has largely, well, it's been unwound by around 50% in terms of the movement uh in the Japanese um in the Japanese currency, then uh I would expect it to uh to come off a little bit. So uh hopefully it doesn't. But um I think one of the other reasons uh Peter was the bond yields fell, the inflation story and the gold and the oil price fell, and the inflation story had a little bit of air came out of it. We have seen, I wouldn't say inflation cooling, but it has uh I think some of the fears uh have dissipated slightly, and as you know, when you look at the gold price there, it is pushing higher, and it was bouncing along the bottom there, testing 4,000. It tested it a number of times and held. It was also said that the Chinese central bank was buying gold around 4,000, and every time it dipped there, it bought. So that is um that is something. Um I see you've uh put some AI blurb. Currency interventions often trigger immediate market reactions. Investors typically flop to safe haven assets like gold during times of currency instability, further driving up its price. Well, there you go. Chat GPT knows all. Um, I think one of the other reasons was that um we have seen a rotation. There is no doubt we have seen a rotation um out of some of the uh the high flyers into some of the low flyers. I'm thinking stocks like Pilbora um on the ASX have been under some pressure, and but we have seen that rotation uh back into lithium, back into some lithium stocks, and again we have seen that rotation in the gold sector as well. The other thing uh that's probably helping uh the gold sector, apart from the bullion price, of course, is the MA activity and the fact they're all building up massive cash piles. Uh, and you can see you know, like night follows day with these gold miners. If if you have a good bullion price, it tends to go up. But um, I'm sure there's some yen uh US dollar intervention there that uh played into it, but um you know maybe there's more to it as well. Uh Tony Watson, someone sold 611,000 West Farmers between 4 o'clock and 410. Any ideas on that, please? Well, market closes at 4 o'clock and it reopens at 4.10 in the chocolate wheel. So um that is interesting. Um let me just get up. I have no idea. Unfortunately, in days of your um there was um there was a broker numbers attached, which was always good. You could see what people are doing, and and nowadays you can't do that. Um, but there was some volume that went through uh after hours. I don't know if there's any large shareholders that did uh a trade. Um there was some big trades going through uh with LTXT, which are um part of portfolio crossings, um, special crossings there as well. So there was some big volume that went through uh at $90.10, which um many years ago in a former life I used to do an awful lot of portfolio trades. This is when an institution would um would basically uh change allocations in a in a big way, and sometimes they lost a mandate, sometimes uh things did uh did move around. I I remember I did one in the week that I got married around 350 million bucks, where um the Victorian Accident Commission was uh readjusting their portfolio and it was a $350 million uh program trade. And we used to get a fax. This is in the old days. We used to get a fax. We had an Excel spreadsheet and we used to read out the prices that I figured that we could clear and we could get some liquidity so that we could unwind these portfolios, and it does look as if there's some portfolios going through uh this afternoon after hours. So obviously, there is uh some movement at the station. The actual match prices um around four around uh 410, not that great, and even between that, as I say, the market closes at four o'clock and reopens at 4.10. That's the way it works. But the big volume, it looks like it was all portfolio readjustments, and that does happen. Um St. George, well, it's been a bit of a dragon, hasn't it? A bit of a dragon on the market for uh SGQ. Uh, maybe I need to have a little look at that one on Monday. Um, like the story, Gina's got 10%, says Leah. Are there too many options in the REE space? To be honest, the the the rare earth space has been a little bit of a chihuahua space, uh, to say the least. It hasn't been a particularly good space uh to be in. Um we are seeing signs of life, and to be honest, a lot of the um a lot of the risk stocks, a lot of the speculative end of the market has not been a great place to be. I have to say, you know, the little small cap portfolio that I run uh hasn't been uh shooting the lights out, and there has been um some pressure in terms of um selling some of the uh the dogs. Um some of them I did action and wish I hadn't. Some of them I should have actioned and didn't. Um, but there you go. Hindsight's a wonderful thing. Um, but even you know, the likes of uh Arafura, which you know is cashed up, got lots of cash um in the rare earth space. They have been lacklustre. I think it's fair to say that lithium and rare earths have been left out, it has all been back on with copper and with gold. Those are the two that have been flying along uh recently. And uranium has had a little bit of a bounce. Uh, you can see that chart there of paladin. Geez, I look pretty smart, didn't I? Selling half of my stock at 14 bucks. Here we are at 10. I added stock back in at what was it, 11, uh $10.80 or something. So not quite as clever, but there you go. Um, but yeah, rare earths has not had its day, and I guess we'll wait and see if it does. But as I say, this rotation is continuing. If the market continues to broaden out, then uh we will see um we will see a bit of a pickup there in the rare earths prize. Um, Bill to everyone. Hi, Bill. Um Remelius. Um, I asked my gold guru, Richard Morrow, who's the director of Lowell Resource Trust, uh, which was his favorite uh gold stock, and he was uh very firmly in the Remelius camp. I can't remember why, um, but he did say it was undervalued and had been sort of left out of the rally. Um, they've recently presented, um and there we go, they presented. We've had diggers and dealers, of course, which has helped uh the whole market in the gold sector, and certainly it's been uh pretty good. Um corporate overview, it's a $5.8 billion card. It's got $650 million in cash. You know, that's that's not bad. It's got good broker coverage as well. Um and it is the vision is it's going to be a 500,000 ounce provider by FY30. Um, I suspect one of the reasons why it has been held back has been the um the the deal with Spartan, uh which probably um probably complicated matters somewhat. I just can't remember when that was completed. Um so I'll have to go back and look at that. But it's probably complicated matters a little bit, um, but um it has now created a a big big company that needs to be taken seriously. And uh, you know, I think there's enough interest in the corporate sector at the moment in uh in the Goldies. Um I'm quite happy to listen to my mate Richard on this one, and it's you know it looks pretty good on the chart. I'm no chartist, as you will all be very much aware. So there we go. Peter says, I'm very long PM stocks again. Having just got back in heavy after six months' sell-off. Are you looking at adding any more gold stocks than what is in your small cap portfolio? Um, yeah, I guess I am. Uh, precious metal stocks, why not? Um, it's um you know, many people say that you should, you know, you need to have some sort of hedge in your portfolio, something that goes against the other ones. I have been uh a bull of gold for some time. I haven't been all in uh by any stretch of the imagination, and I have picked and chosen uh stocks and sometimes chosen the wrong one. I did choose Kingsgate after all, which has been in my parlance suboptimal. Although, you know, again, this this volatility that we're seeing, things are starting to turn, and they've obviously had some issues in uh uh Chatry in Thailand. Um, but um you know I don't mind uh Kingsgate. So uh yes, I will be looking to add some uh some more gold exposure. Uh I was nervous when it got to 4,000. I didn't think that it was gonna hold it at times, and I did foresee a potential for it to break 4,000, the bears to jump on board and send it back to 3,500. Happily I was wrong. Um, and I if it had got to three and a half thousand, I would have opened my shoulders and loaded up, but uh it didn't get there, so um we'll see. But uh the bounce has been interesting. Uh Bruce, uh VYS ViceN, uh another one that um doesn't get a lot of coverage. Uh waterplay, uh tier one resource in WA, broadening to industrial utilities, um, trading profitably. Um, let's just get the chart up in that one. Uh Bruce, in terms of Vice. My system seems to be a little slow this evening. Maybe it's me, maybe it's the system, but it has been going pretty well, Bruce. You've done well with this one, haven't you? Um that's um that's a nice chart, I have to say. No reason to do anything really with that one, apart from just stay long and sing a song. Um Mark asks about dateline resources. Um, so yes, as far as Vice Ang goes, stay long and sing a song, I'd say. Uh you're on the right track there. Uh dateline. Uh Dateline is, I think it's um suspended currently at the moment. We are waiting with baited, baited breath, um, for uh the result of a court case, I think it is. Um they have got this issue with the Colosseum and the the ownership structure of this has been questioned. Um I do um I do have I have done in the past uh liked this one, um, and certainly um there is reasons to like it, but it is suspended at the moment, so there's not much I can do about it, and we are, I guess, pregnant in some respects still on um the outcome of uh what's going on here. Um I have held it in the past, um, but I did um I have sold it, so I'm uh out at the moment. We'll see. Um we'll see what happens. I did take the plunge in and then sold it. Um we'll wait and see what happens. But um, yeah, there are I guess some concerns about the ownership structure there. Uh what is your view on Arafura? Uh I still hold Arafura in the small cap basket, uh small cap portfolio. I like Arafura. I do like rare earths. I seem to be the only one in the world that does at the moment, apart from Gina Hancock. But um, you know, we've um we've seen uh some huge volatility, but I guess in some respects Arafura is similar to Vulcan Energy. They're it they're in construction, you know. Well we're now um in construction phase for these guys, um, and you know they've got the money. The the they were always gonna have to raise a ton of money, um, let's face it, uh, for the um for building Nolans. Uh it was always gonna be an absolute um, you know, a ton of money there that they were gonna need to raise. They've got the funds now. Um, you know, I I've been around a fair while in the Aussie market, and Nolan's has been around, I think it predates me, but we are moving into construction phase. Um, and it's gonna be the first, as they say on the latest presentation at Diggers and Dealers, first rare earth ore to oxide project. Uh Nolan's just outside Alice. So um it is now a question of uh we know there's the resource there, they've got the funding. Um, we know the demand is there for rare earths. The issue is going to be completing it on time and on budget. Um, and so there we go. Um so we'll wait and see, but uh yeah, I still hold it, still happy to hold it. DB, how do we get a free MT t-shirt? Good question. I've only got one. Um I think you have to work here for 11 years, maybe. Um maybe we should get into merch. I've always thought we should get into merch. I did design some merch, but it wasn't as good as this one. Uh, maybe we should uh sell merch or give t-shirts away with our membership packs. Maybe that'd be a fantastic inducement. It's always good to always find one of the best pieces of marketing, I've always thought was uh the Hard Rock Cafe, which I remember going to the first Hard Rock Cafe, or one of the first Hard Rock Cafes, it must have been in London on Hyde Park. I went and I was taken to see the Harlem Globetrotters with a friend of mine whose dad was very well connected. We went and saw the Harlem Globetrotters, and then we went and had dinner at the Hard Rock Cafe, and they have done a smashing time of promoting their business, their name through their t-shirts. Maybe we should do the same. I think that's a great idea. Uh hi Henry, I know you're a gold bull. Have you looked at ETPM P M E T F? No is the answer. Too many letters there for my liking. Uh let's uh get it up, as they say in all the best carry-on films. Um, ETPM P M. Global Physical Precious Metals. Uh no, I haven't really looked at this one, I have to say. Um, it is a structured basket. Uh yeah, I'll um I'll let that one go through the keeper. There's not a lot of uh volume in it, but obviously it follows the gold price. Um, do you think that what Wise Tech and Zero are due for a significant re rate? My God. Um yes. They have been in the kennel for some time, I think it's fair to say. Um didn't help the That the CEO Sink Cassidy sold out. That was always a great vote of confidence. And it didn't help the fact that she's paid an extraordinary amount of money and has seen an extraordinary collapse in the share price. I can't believe that at one stage they raised money at 176 bucks. And the market was falling over themselves to buy it. I mean, come on, guys. And they bought that Melio thing in the States, having toiled away for over a decade trying to build some sort of um you know business there that um had a had enough to survive. Um they struggled. Here we go. Look, Meleo, 176 bucks. It has been one-way traffic ever since. Now we have seen signs of life, and I guess we've seen signs of life in the US on software stocks there as well. The likes of a Lassian 32% in an evening after hours. That's pretty big. So uh yes, I I'm not sure a significant re-rate is on the cards, but you could easily see this one back up towards 85-90 bucks with the wind behind it. Um, but I have um talked to tech stocks on many occasions and have been proved absolutely wrong. The results are gonna be the key. The results of Y stack this got down to 30 bucks uh below 30 bucks. You know, it's whoops, I've done something wrong here. Um, but you know, here we were. It was extraordinary in terms of how far this one fell. I've just discovered that little function there. How cool is that? Um, you live and learn, don't you? Um need to spend more time um doing these things. But Weisted got down to 30 bucks, now 41 dollars. So I don't know if it's uh due for a significant re-rate. It's had a significant re-rate in some respects. Um, where's my calculator? Uh 11 divided by 30 is uh a 36% rise. I call that a re-rating. Um, whether it rises another 36%, I don't know. Uh, any thoughts on interest-bearing investment accounts if we are holding cash waiting opportunities? No thoughts at all. Um, we have toyed with uh putting the money uh that we have in 100% cash in the strategy portfolio. That is the only real money portfolio that we have. We have thought about putting that into the uh quadruple A, which is that uh ETF, um, but we don't or we hadn't really thought that we would be holding cash forever and a day. Um, so um we have toyed with it, but at the moment we're just happy to have it in cash, and I'm sure in the next uh few weeks it will get deployed. We have a constant conversation about whether to deploy it. Helen, thank you for your uh message. What are your thoughts on James Hardy? Seems to be moving back up. Um I gotta say, I don't like James Hardy. I think they treated their shareholders with uh disgust on so many fronts. I think they've treated uh corporate governance with disgust on so many fronts. Now, how the hell do I get rid of this this um this thing? Oh, maybe that's uh clear my drawings. There you go. Learned something. Um having said that, it was one of my stocks of the year uh a couple of years ago. Um, more successful than this year's go. Um, but it was my stock of the year. I think it was 23 or 24, uh, and they had a sensational run. I think it was around 27 bucks. I tipped them, they went to 60. They do make the best of a bad job. Um, they can't help the economic environment in the US, they can't help uh the fact that um you know we have um we have uh a sluggish US housing market because no one wants to refinance because if they do they cop the massive update in terms of interest rates, so they can't help that, but they are making the best of a bad situation, and I think that is a good thing. Uh management may hold shareholders in some contempt, and they do, um, but they did have some good results. I'm sure we're gonna get some uh some broker upgrades there, and I would not be surprised to see it back up towards uh 50 bucks, so I'd hold on to that. Greetings from Dingle Rick, greetings indeed. How is it in Dingle? There's another sophomore into here. Uh 40x. Well, what can I say? Um, ask me, tell me the share price, and I'll tell you what I think is the answer. Um, it is um very, very um volatile. 40x. Let's um let's not look back quite so far. Um 40x is very volatile, as many members will know. We did uh recommend this one back at um well under 40 cents. Um if we go back a little bit in time, and at the time, which was a year ago, there we go. A year ago, we recommended these at 40 cents, they're now $4.22. So that is a 10 bagger, people. I'm pretty happy with that. So should you be um if you followed it? Uh, we did also create a biotech basket at the same time of five stocks to give some diversity. That has gone very well. To be fair, four have gone not so well or average, but 40x has gone stunningly. I did uh interview the CEO Andreas Foras uh recently. I like 40x, but it is volatile. You've got to hold on, hold tight for a fast ride. The louder you scream, the faster you go. Um, as far as the other stocks go, EIQ I do like here. I do like dimerics. I sold it, shouldn't have done. I'm a silly billy. Um, dimerics is is neuron in its infancy, um, although that I think neuron has been better at managing uh their cash and their royalties and not doing quite the same sorts of deals that Dimerics has done. Um but we are waiting on test results there. Um, but uh Dimerics has um I guess it's rebuilding its story, but they have got this funding in place, whereas Neuron really didn't have the same issues. So uh I do like Dimerics, um, but it's probably not going to be as stellar as uh Neuron has been. And Nuron, I've got to say, you know, I've interviewed John Pilcher a number of times. He's always been very upfront, and he's been very accurate in terms of when the re-ratings are going to occur. Um, and he has been um you know very good on that. Uh, not one that I have come across, I have to say. Um surgical devices for the treatment of glaucoma in Australia. Um, not one that I know. It's only $44 million market cap, so probably have to do some more research on that one. Uh Cliniuvale as well. Uh I I like the biotech sector. I've actually um made contact in the last few weeks. I went to a Jane Morgan. Uh always good to go to Jane Morgan presentations. They do fantastic lunches at the establishment. Always good to have a free lunch, listen to a few new stories. Um, but I did go to a Jane Morgan presentation, and uh I met a guy called Jason Siegel, who runs the armchair analyst, and uh he specialized in biotechs, and we're chatting next week. Uh, I think it's next week, uh, for another On the Couch podcast. So stay tuned for that one. Hope Dingle is treating you well. I'm sure you're there for the golf, uh, Dingly Dell. Uh, any thoughts on AMP? I kind of wrote them in the in the newsletter this morning, Louise, um, and I've compared it in the past uh to the scaffolded building on Circular Key that was undergoing significant renovations, and then it was revealed in all its glory. A bit like Sydney, uh North Sydney swimming pool, which apparently is open this weekend after uh spending 122 million and five million bucks to uh 122 million rather than five years to uh to put it back in uh in the 21st century. Um AMP it it has done well. Blair Vernon's done a good job. Uh I wrote this morning how I thought it was definitely a hold. The easy money had been made, and then it goes and shoots another five percent higher. So there you go, silly old me. Um, but it has done a good job. Um, I think it's kind of fully priced here, but I could be wrong. I obviously was wrong this morning, but it does feel a little bit fully priced, I have to say, so it's definitely a hold. Um, but if you've been holding it for some time, maybe it's um it's not a bad thing to uh take a little bit of money off the table. I'm always a big fan of taking a little bit of money off the table. It's never wrong to take profits. Uh I know sometimes uh it's um it's hard um to hold stocks and and the payout at the end of the day is is far better, but um yeah, it's um it's never wrong to take some profits, I don't think it does. I I always feel that there's um there's a case for having a uh part of your your holding in your portfolio, if you like, is uh is a core holding that that's the long-term side of a stock that you own, and there is a a a bit at the margin perhaps that you uh use to trade around the edges and enhance uh and try and uh time it still keeping the core portfolio holding, uh but trading around the edges, so taking some profits and on bad days, inevitably the ASX is going to have a bad day, and AMP will drop you know 5% or 4% or whatever, and then another 4% and come back to earth a little bit, and that's the time to be picking them up. Um, Clio Diagnostics asked DB. Um, Clio Diagnostics, I did so this is um this is a very important uh thing they're trying to do, I have to say. They did um uh a young lady presented this at uh the same Jane Morgan. Oh, James Tonkin. Are you really asking me about carnar energy? Crikey, you know I've held carnarvon for donkeys years. Uh back to Clio diagnostics, anyway. Uh the lady who presented, she ran through this story at a million miles an hour, and it really didn't do it justice. Um, this is avarian cancer, which is uh a massive, massive problem. Um, and the problem is that it's very hard to diagnose, and the the only real way to diagnose it uh to some extent is to operate. And in many cases, when uh when the doctors operate, and uh it is a big operation, there's not um, you know, it's it's not something to be taken lightly, but when they do operate, they find that it is not cancerous, but it's the only way to do it. These guys are trying to develop a test that is gonna break that cycle uh and and ensure that um you know that women can get um a reliable test for surviv uh for ovarian cancer um before the surgeon needs to sharpen his scalpel. So as I say, I I don't think the presentation really did it justice. It was very rushed. Um and uh you know they have entered um an analytical validation phase which seems to have spooked the market somewhat. I I think you know if if they can get this right, it's um it's significant. But uh, you know, it's a $45 million company, it's a bit of a crapshoot. Um, I'm sure they're gonna need more money at some stage, but they need to get their presentation a little bit more polished, I think. Um thoughts on Carnarvon? I'm not even gonna go there, Jim. I'm not even gonna go there. Um, I own Carnarvon for a long time based on the um Dorado uh thing they had with Santos, they had 20% of that from memory. I can't even remember why I bought it. Um, but it has been um a chihuahua, and I guess it goes to show that if you own a slight portion of a project and somebody else owns all of it, you are really at their mercy. Um, it's still a 168 million dollar uh company, so strange days indeed. Um, any hope for AQZ? Um it is showing a flicker of life, John. Um, I must admit I sold it a long time ago, uh, Alliance Aviation. It was an infrastructure play, I guess, uh, in terms of those wet leases um that they had from Qantas. I also held it on the hope that Qantas was gonna take it out. They did have 19% of the market, but it has been hard work since then. And um, I guess like Jet Star's doing for us when we're gonna board planes and try and put our hand luggage overhead. Qantas is great at screwing people over, um, whether it's their own um whether it's their own staff or whether it's their customers, or whether in in this case it has been Alliance Aviation. The market has uh warmed to this clarification as part of the the fleet deal. Um, I guess there's where there's life, there's hope. I seem to remember, I haven't looked at it for a while, but uh most of their contracts are on a cost plus basis, so the the higher fuel prices doesn't really affect them uh as they are uh costs plus. Um so that is something to bear in mind. But they have had a bit of a spurt today and uh and recently maybe there is hope for this one, but it has had its problems, it has had management issues, it has had fleet issues, maintenance issues, um, yeah, and it has had liquidity issues, and it got the quantas got knocked back from taking over the whole thing, which was disappointing, I have to say. We move on. Peter asks thoughts on Kodan. Kodan is a good stock, I have to say. I I used to own this in the small cap portfolio many, many years ago, and it was really volatile, and it scared the pants off me. I I don't know why it scared the pants off me in hindsight, because it's got you know it's got two things that have been absolute winners for them. I think you know it was I'll just um get go back a little further. Um, but it did scare the pants off me with its volatility. Uh it it crashed down, it was under five bucks from 20 bucks. I mean, that just gives you some idea. Um I did oh look, I've got my some little um my my little cartoon drawings there. Uh take profits was our call. Um so there we go. That was uh that was the call when they got to the highs. Uh, I guess Kodan has got two things going for it. It's a great story. Uh they make metal detectors and they make military communication systems. There's no shortage of people that need military communications at the moment, and there's no shortage of people in West Africa and elsewhere that are buying metal detectors. Uh, and the gold price certainly helps that. It is a tech stock, it is a gold and military uh stock. So those two things have been driving it. It has pulled back from its highs. Probably looking to find a base and go again. If the gold price holds up, all those uh people in West Africa will uh be clubbing together as they do to try and find artisanal uh gold, uh, and they'll all be out there with their metal detectors. Um so there we go. Probably a bit of a pullback, but if it comes back towards you know 37 bucks, I'd be a buyer of Codan. Um I'm running out of questions, which is a good thing. Uh, where's the wine? Uh good question. Where is the wine? Um Benny and the Jets, just one other general view or aspect. Your honest opinion on the Trump effect. Yeah. Um Donald Donald Trump has got one measurement of popularity, and that is the US stock market. It's it's really simple. Um and he is very good at monetizing his position as president. I don't know if you call that the Trump effect. Uh he has become taco man for various different reasons, whether that's because he's running out of bullets, or whether it's because his Arab friends, his allies, I'm not sure they're quite so keen on Donald Trump these days and US bases there as they keep getting attacked. But his allies have kind of talked him out of going big in terms of uh kinetic action in in the Gulf. You'd have to say that this was a pretty ill-conceived plan with a very ill-conceived outcome that was supposed to be over very quickly. And, you know, I think the problem that Donald had is Venezuela. You know, Venezuela became a blueprint for Donald. Um, and you know, it was all over in you know, pretty much half an hour in Venezuela, and it was all done and dusted. US oil companies moved in, everyone was happy, uh, we had a bit of regime change, although, you know, as the Who said, you know, see the old boss, same, see the new boss, same as the old boss. I suspect some of that's uh the way of things. Um, but I think that was the problem, Venezuela. It it was the blueprint that made it look too easy, and he thought that uh the Iranian people would welcome uh him bombing their leaders with open arms. In actual fact, it has not done that, and there has been a serious miscalculation. He needs to sort this out. Um, the world believes that it will be sorted out, and as uh Dr. Ian Malcolm in Jurassic Park said, life will find a way. In fact, it was Richard Attenborough, I think, that said that. I can't remember who actually said it, but life will find a way, and oil will find a way to get out. And uh much as the Iranians have power over Trump with the midterms, Trump has power over the Iranians because in time pipelines will be built around the Strait of Hammuz, and at some stage it will become less and less relevant. But um, Donald Trump is there for himself. Um he's you can't argue he's good for the market, he's been good for American business, he's done a lot of things right in some respects. You know, you've only got to look at corporate earnings from the US, and it has been pretty astonishing. Um, and the US is still leading in the great AI race, so clearly he has done things that are right. Um, but his barometer is not the fake news polls, his barometer is the stock market, and he has only got two more years to go. Scary, isn't it? Um, but then it's done, he's done and dusted. I don't know what happens after that. Um, Louise, uh last question from Louise. Any reason for the MP1 volatility? Megaport. Uh yeah, it's um it is a very volatile stock, uh, I have to say. Um brokers have got much higher valuations on this one. They're heading into the neo cloud. They did raise money, so that's um you know that took um some of the the wind out of their sales to some extent. They raised money. Oh, it was it's kind of when was it? Round here. Um, let me get my little drawery thing out. Um that's quite fun. You know, they did raise some money, and they went bananas on the back of this this NeoCloud thing. Um, and that's been you know very, very good for them. Uh the brokers have got much higher valuations. It's one of those stocks where when the market falls apart and you get that uh semiconductor socks sell-off or the lag 7 sell-off, as we've seen. Oh, let's do this again. This is so much fun. Um you know, when you get these kind of sell-offs, that, my friends, is when volatility is your friend. You have to stick your courage to the sticking, know your courage to the sticking place and look to the long term and the horizon and pick up some of these quality stocks on these pullbacks because you don't get the chance very often. Anyway, I'll take those little um those off. Um, that's about it from me. Anyway, um, we're uh we've run over time. One hour and five minutes. My wife will be banging on the door anytime soon. Thank you so much for your attendance tonight. Um, I know a lot of you will watch this. Uh, what's the graphing software you're using? Um, Tony, I use um Market Tech, uh, which we have kind of an arrangement with. We put our research and our and our podcast, etc., on their platform, um, as do other people like Osbiz. See, look, it's my wife, she's phoning. Um, I have to say, um, so anyway, um, yes, Marketek is the one we use. Uh tell them we sent you, um, and uh I'm sure they'll do you a deal. It's it's a I I use it all the time. I use a combination of that and uh iris, which is pretty crap, but it's uh it is what it is, and I've used it forever. I know the team in Melbourne use TradingView a lot. Um, it's a little bit overs for me. I'm a bit of a simpler person, I don't I get confused quite easily. Um, that's it. Thanks for listening. Have a great evening, the rest of your weekend. Uh I'll be uh I'll be back on board tomorrow morning at uh uh seven o'clock in the morning, I guess. Saturday morning. What else would you be doing but writing for the newsletter? Um, so uh there we go. Um in the meantime, as always, thanks for your support and have a great weekend, and thank you very much for your attendance today. And this will be available as a podcast and as a webinar for you to listen to back. There were 300 odd people who were uh registered, and I think about 75 turned up, so everybody else can uh keep their questions to themselves. You get the chance to ask your questions, everybody else gets the chance to just watch you ask the questions. That's it. Have a great weekend.