Ask the Analyst | 17 April

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Transcript

Welcome And General Advice Disclaimer

SPEAKER_00 0:03

Well, good evening, and welcome to this edition of Ask the Analyst with myself Henry Jennings from Marcus Today. And as always, with all the information contained in this webinar, it is general advice only. So please do your own research. Contact your own financial advisor regarding any of the thoughts, ideas, or insights in this webinar. Just want to make sure that everyone can hear me. I haven't had any questions as yet. So we'll see how we go. But it is general advice only, as I said. Just before we kick off, I just thought I'd run through where we are, I guess, to some extent. And here, of course, is our disclaimer in full, so you can have a little look through that if that is of interest to you. And you can see that there. As far as the market goes, though, I just thought I'd put this little chart up here in terms of where we are and uh where we've been, I guess. It does seem as if the war is very much in our rear view mirror at the moment. If it is a war or whether it was just an excursion. Um but whatever it is, it does seem kind of strange that we are at all-time highs, uh, yet the uh Gulf of Humuz is still closed. I know that uh it is now the Americans that have closed it and have put the blockade in force. Um but uh it is still somewhat interesting uh that um uh the blockade is still there. Um so uh good to see a few questions coming through. Hi Benny, uh good to see you. How are the jets? Uh James's question as well, so we'll get on to those. But it is interesting to see that you know the Japanese market's at a record high, the Aussie market's not far off it, the US markets are at record highs, but yet the overwhelming factor is the oil price is still not shy, not too far shy of a hundred bucks, and the effects of that are going to be felt for some time to come in inflation, in interest rates, higher food prices, fertilizer costs, etc. etc. So we have had a bit of a relief rally uh in the market. That is, I think, pretty much across the board that we haven't got a resumption of missiles flying around all over the Middle East taking out different petrochemical plants and setting them back years. So that is a good thing, but we still haven't got any tankers actually going through the Strait of Hurmuz, which is not a particularly good thing. So we wait and see what developments hold. But at least we've got a bit of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, we've got a ceasefire between the Lebanon and Israel. So signs are promising, but still a long way to go. So it is going to be interesting. But there you can see the chart. We did peak in the reporting season at the end of the reporting season, around sort of the well, the end of February, really, before the war began, as they say. Uh, and we did bottom with that uh peak negativity, of course, and uh happily for Marcus today, uh, 20 strategy holders or those people that have been following the strategy portfolio, we had been in cash since October, and as a result, we're uh quite happy to uh to be out of it for some time. And uh, although we did eventually uh decide to go back in, and we have gone back in 100% invested now back in those ETFs, and you can read obviously about that in the strategy portfolio. So that's working out quite well at the moment, I have to say, and of course, one of the unique selling points of the strategy portfolio is our ability to go to cash, 100% cash. There's very few funds that can do that. I read Steve Johnson from Forager Fund saying that he had massively elevated cash levels, he was talking about 20%, and his fund has struggled because of the underperformance of um certain sectors of the market. So, anyway, where do we go now? I I get the feeling we're just in for a little bit of a consolidation, but who knows? That can change uh in a heartbeat. Uh, the information technology sector, which we uh the tech sector has had a bit of a resurrection. It is Easter after all, as I joked on Osby's today, uh, but it certainly has been resurrected. We've seen this before, we've seen false starts before, but maybe we're gonna start building some momentum in this bombed-out sector. The likes of Zero, the likes of Technology One, the likes of Wise Tech, Life 360, you know the stocks, uh the Codans, the Next DCs, the Mega Ports, etc. Uh, certainly it is showing some signs there. Uh, we'll get on to some questions in a minute. And uh the resource index, well, the rally is starting to look a little bit um, I guess we're seeing rotation into different uh parts of the resource rally at the moment. We're seeing lithium stocks charging ahead. Uh, we're also seeing uranium stocks charging ahead. I did sell uh half my um paladin exposure the other day. I thought that was a good price, but they kicked a little bit higher. But uh I still have some uh uranium exposure in the small cap portfolio in the guise of uh Tribeca and Lotus as well, which has got that um African uh uranium exposure there. So, alright, as far as uh the resources go, we're cycling around there, and now we're gonna get on to some questions, which is what you're all here for, I guess. Um so uh hi Benny, hi James. James's question is can you discuss um Vulcan still worth holding? Um well let's just uh I'll just switch over the uh the screens here. Uh let's just get the right screen up for you all. Bit slow my internet tonight. Is Vulcan worth holding? Well, it is a lithium stock, it is also uh a geothermal stock in Germany, of course, and uh it has been I guess at times it has been uh doing extraordinarily well, and other times it has been doing not so well, and uh the moment we are in construction phase. The important thing, I guess, with Vulcan is that it is now fully funded to construct the actual project Lionheart. So that is certainly uh uh a major thing, but it is as I say, it is in construction, there's no exploration, there's well limited exploration, I guess, but uh it is all about constructing the plant, so it is gonna take some time. So, certainly, if you're holding this one, it may be that it takes a little time to come through, but uh, I still like Vulcan, I still like the management, and I still think they are gonna deliver. And of course, with what's happened in the Gulf and the need for renewables, uh, both lithium and that geothermal, uh, we have got Vulcan pretty well placed. German state recently granted a royalty exemption for the lithium production as well, so it really will be a question of getting some um updates on how that uh construction is going. Daniel Wong, our SIHER analyst on CNBC saying we are late in the economic cycle and there's a big market adjustment recession around the corner. Do you share the same view? Uh no, Daniel. I I think that there is uh a case to be made that we could easily push ourselves into recession with a combination of uh higher oil prices and uh certainly higher interest rates, especially in Australia. But uh you get the feeling that uh the you know governments still are supportive of economies. You also get the feeling that the US economy is still going pretty well, you know, and our economy is going pretty well. We saw that jobs number the other day in terms of you know 4.3% unemployment. So we're not doing too badly. I know it's a lot of doom and gloom out there from time to time, but we're not doing too badly. The US also their jobs are pretty stable. Uh, and China we just saw a 5% print on their GDP. Not that anybody actually believes that, but of course, um you know it's not the US, uh, some of those numbers that come out of the US aren't to be believed either because they have some major revisions. So interesting times, but I don't see a major recession on the cards. In fact, there is an argument, and this is something I discussed with uh Nick Griffin from uh Munro Partners, and I was really hoping to get the uh On the Couch podcast to all our members uh by the weekend, but we have been held up in compliance by Munro uh with some of the things that Nick talked about, unfortunately. So um I could work into the night and edit it, but um we're doing this instead, so uh it'll be coming out probably early next week. I might get a chance tomorrow morning to do it. Depends how many changes their compliance department wants and when they get those changes to me. But that is always the danger, I guess, of uh interviewing some people. Uh so uh do you think there is more to run in the Aussie Tech stocks? Well, Aussie Tech will ultimately, I guess, to some extent follow US tech. And talking to Nick yesterday, he was saying that basically the US tech stocks are actually cheaper now than they were three to six months ago, uh, even though the uh the Nasdaq is at record highs on a P basis, because what's happened is the E has increased. And he has a very simple philosophy in terms of investment, and you'll hear this on the podcast. It is just basically all about earnings. If earnings are growing, then the noise, which obviously we're all familiar with, the noise eventually will dissipate, and earnings growth means share price growth, and that is a very simple philosophy from the people at Munro Partners, and they have done well out of that philosophy. So, do I think there's more to run in the uh the Aussie tech sector? Well, yes, I do to be honest. I don't think you know, when you look at the um the all tech um ETF, you know, we've we've hardly got started, really. Um I I was looking at WiseTech the other day, it was hard to believe they got down to$36. There was usually a one in front of that. So I think yes, there is more to come in the tech sector. What you normally find on these turning points and whether we have got a turning point remains to be seen, but we'll just put up that chart on the information technology space. Uh, but what you normally see on these turning points is you know money gets thrown at everything, and then once people have got set, they then start to rotate to what they see are the winners and what they see as the losers. So we start to get a little bit of rotation within the sector once everyone's just chucked the money at the wall and hope that it sticks to the wall. Uh so maybe we're gonna start to see a little bit of that rotation into those sectors that um those stocks rather that uh have uh more potential than others, and of course, we are probably gonna get a lot of quarterly updates as the month progresses uh in terms of um the market. So um we shall see. Alright, first question uh from Terry uh well, not the first question, but a question from Terry thoughts on LDX, Lumos Diagnostics. Let's just get the chart up in LUMOS, uh LUMOS Diagnostics LDX. Now, for those of you who've been paying attention and been following the biotech baskets, they have been doing rather well, I have to say. There has been a little bit of a renaissance in biotechs and medtech stocks. EIQ is another one that's been going absolutely gangbusters, as well as 40x. I have written about Prometicus as well, in terms of uh the fact that I did like Prometicus and uh did see some upside there, and they keep announcing big contracts. So Luminous, uh Luminous rather diagnostics. Um they recently announced an agreement with Well Street to what roll out fibridix uh usage across 43 locations, uh, so that's uh acute respiratory presentations per annum. Uh so it is certainly um starting to look kind of interesting, uh, I have to say. It may be that uh we're starting to see the first signs of a bit of a recovery there. They have been uh trading between a range of around 20 cents to 30 cents, and uh at the moment we're at the bottom end of that range, so I wouldn't be surprised given the current climate for some of these um biotechs and med tech companies to see this one push back up towards 30 cents. So, Terry, I think I'd probably stick with it for the time being. Hugh! Hi, Hugh. Hopefully, see you in Melbourne at the ASA conference. Uh, you've asked for an opinion on Artria, uh, which for those of you with long memories was one of the stocks that uh Armina Rosenberg uh Minotaur was following, and uh they had a big buy on that one, and it has done uh I think it's fair to say, and this goes for you know a lot of these companies, it has done pretty well recently, it has done uh not bad at all.$650 million market cap. So it's not uh the smallest in the world in terms of the market cap, but it is uh looking at um using AI to diagnose a coronary artery disease, which of course is a big killer. I think it probably needs to have a little look at mine. Uh so it is looking good, as I say, Minotaur Capital uh were ones that looked at this one and uh they were pretty keen on it. It's had a pretty good run, I have to say. And I probably the comment that I'm gonna make about this one is if you've been holding it, it's never wrong to take a little bit of money off the table, it's never wrong to be running some of these uh for a very, very reduced cost. Stop losses, uh training stop losses do help with your risk management in these sorts of stocks, but it does look uh pretty good at the moment, and uh certainly um I think uh it was uh part of the All Lords as well. Uh, we're probably due uh a little bit of an update in terms of the market. We haven't seen much of that. Um, it's interesting, I guess, that um my old friend Bernie Ridgway is uh is one of the directors of this one, and he used to run Index, which is drilling mud. Um, he's recently been buying a few as well. He bought um uh some uh he acquired 500,000 shares through an options exercise. So um yeah, it um certainly doesn't look bad, but uh as I say, it's probably worth taking some profits along the way. Which brings us to EIQ, which again I guess is in the um the AI space, uh, and this one is uh has been on an almighty run. And we talked about this one this morning, or this afternoon, rather, on Osbys on the call, um, and and basically uh it's um well it's a one well, it's an 800 million dollar company now, so it's not small by any stretch of the imagination, and you know it's still early stage. I would be probably taking a little bit of money off the table there, Hugh, in EIQ. It's easy to get carried away, it's certainly easy for charters to look at these and go, Well, this thing's never going down in our lifetime again. However, we know that shares are not numbers on doors and uh they do tend to um move around a little bit. So um, we have seen a couple of catalysts here with the partnership with the Mayo Clinic, which is on 30 hospitals network, and the stock has been added to the all ords, um, but um you know it has exploded out of the blocks, and there's obviously massive upside uh looking at some of the blurb, um a clinical study conducted at Mayo across more than 17,000 echocardiograms. The software detected heart failure with a 99.5% sensitivity. Now, you are playing with people's lives and playing with people's hearts, so it's got to be 94.5% is pretty good, but it's got to be absolutely tippy top in terms of that. So, here I'd probably take a few profits off the table. Uh, Greg, what are your thoughts on PE1? PE1 uh private equity. Uh, and this is one that's uh got a holding in SpaceX. I did add it to the small cap portfolio and then uh decided to uh to take it out again. Um, but um you know, SpaceX and Anthropic and all these AI plays that are coming down the pipe, you know, Wall Street is gonna be in a feeding frenzy. You can guarantee that there's not going to be anything that's gonna keep a Wall Street banker from his bonus on the back of these. So, you know, PE1 does have a shareholding and is quite a good shareholding in SpaceX. So that is a positive, but I've just I must admit I'm just a little bit concerned, I guess, on uh private equity, uh private credit as well at the moment. Some of the valuations, I guess. The good thing is that when the uh software stocks in the US and the tech stocks in the US were in free fall, uh private equity didn't revalue them to some extent, and we didn't really know what they were worth, some of these investments. Um, but of course, now it's picked up, so maybe they were right in not revaluing them. So um, we are seeing um there was a good interview on uh the stock network with uh the executive director Adam Myers from uh PE1. So um it's it's certainly an interesting way to play uh SpaceX, and I don't think there's too many other ways maybe that Australian retail investors can. So maybe it is worth hanging on to there, Greg. Um, do you think PLT is a downtrend because of AI concerns and is it worth holding? PLT, let's just get that one up uh for our listeners and viewers. Uh PLT, where are we? Um plenty. Um it's yeah, it's it's not been good, has it? Let's face it. Um I think there's a number of issues with with plenty, and there's a number of issues, of course, with these uh sort of quasi uh banking products when interest rates do push higher. Um so it it does tend to um to play on them to an extent and not to the upside. Um so plenty. Uh yeah, I'm I think it is partly AI, partly interest rates. They did uh put out some numbers in uh January. What was it, the fifth consecutive record quarter, three billion dollar loan portfolio, uh revenue 79.9 million, 22% above previous corresponding period. Things were looking good, um, so it uh it's pretty diversified in terms of that. Automotive, renewable energy, and personal automotive being the biggest uh slug of their loans. But uh, as I say, a slowing economy, higher interest rates, probably not optimal for PLT. Uh Brenton uh says, hi, all thanks for the event, Henry. No problem. Is the aluminium shorter still a reason to buy Alcoa even after recent run-up and then disappointing result? Um, I saw that um the LME uh commodities index, which uh was um at record highs. I think it's six industrial commodities record highs. Clearly, the results were a little bit disappointing for Alcoa. Um, I I guess it's not really one that we concentrate on a lot in Australia. Um, it's the old um you know, we we used to have uh it listed as uh as one here. Um I can't even remember the code, it's so long ago, but the volumes aren't particularly huge in Australia. Uh some days they're alright, but other days they're not. But um we have seen uh I guess the fair value according to the brokers is around 103, so slightly below that after the numbers. Um but I guess from a strategic point of view, then uh you know, if if we get uh the Gulf open and the blockade uh finished, then we should get um a bit of a relief rally in the market continuing, and uh maybe we'll see some of these um things like uh aluminium or even helium or urea prices. Of course, that's fertilizer uh coming under a little bit of pressure. So I would be probably a little bit uh circumspect at the moment about our coa, especially after the market reaction to those results last night. So it's run, it usually trades in a range of sort of 80 to 100 bucks. Here we are at the top end of that range, it bursts through it. I I would say that if we get some resolution and we get some sort of deal done, we could see um you know the aluminium price, a little bit of the fast money come out of that. So maybe just be a little bit careful. John McKinnon asks any thoughts on the WiiBit Nano SPP at four dollars and five? Whew. Um Well we did um chat to Kobe Hannock in uh podcast not so long ago. Um it is pretty much the close uh where we are. Four dollars and six was the close. Um if you were contemplating this one, you know, um I don't know, let's just see when the dates are. Um but it would have paid you to uh have been selling some when they were at um you know six bucks or five bucks at least uh after the placement, uh at least to take advantage of the uh the the arbitrage there. The last day is uh the 29th of March. Uh they're raising 15 million bucks under the uh SPP at$4.05. Clearly, it's line ball, but you've got plenty of time uh till the 29th of April to decide, so there's no reason now to uh to make any rash decisions. If it does poke its head up, then um you know you can uh you can take that option. So you've got a bit of a free call there, I guess. Uh John on your Wii bit nano. Uh OMA, not oh my god, oh my um, yes, OMA, not one that I've come across, I must admit. Um let's just see if there's um something I can uh help you with there with OMA. It's done pretty well, hasn't it? Umiga oil and gas, it's just uh got a HP rig for expanded uh trough drill program that was in March. Uh and um, you know, it's well it's gone, it's gone pretty well, I have to say, and of course, uh the uh the Beach Energy JV deal has probably been the the catalyst for the re-rating of with that dominant basin position. Uh the Tarum Trough, uh that is the uh that is the I guess the focal point for these guys. Uh so it is interesting, I guess, in Australia, it's it's hard to find good second-line oil and gas stocks. Uh the um, you know, we've got the big ones Woodside and Santos. Then there's kind of a long way down, especially in terms of quality, to beach, which is a bit of a dog to say the least. Um, and Caroon has captured the imagination of a lot of people, and for all the good reasons, because it does have operations in Brazil, it also has operations in the Gulf of Trump, and as a result, it that that's oil and gas that's not going to be going through uh the Middle East. So that that's certainly important, and the higher oil price goes, of course, these will get uh a wriggle on, but it has run uh pretty hard, and I guess uh Amiga will be uh hostage both to the oil price and to the drill results, so just be a little bit careful. Grant Harmon. Uh, regardless if the war stops soon, and assuming the oil price stays above a hundred dollars a barrel, is it fair to assume that ASX fuel should increase as a result of increased profits of the companies in the portfolio? Yeah, I think that's fair enough to uh to assume that. Um there are, you know, I think um the boys uh in Melbourne did a very good job today running through the uh the attractions of uh of fuel uh as an ETF. Uh clearly it is very much geared to the oil price. But uh you're right, Gran, if the oil price stays where it is for any length of time, and we've discussed this in terms of the gold price at times. You know, if the gold price stays elevated for a long time, then obviously the gold miners are going to make off like bandits, and that's what we're seeing. The same will apply to any of these uh companies exposed to these commodity prices that are at you know elevated levels because of whatever action is happening in the Middle East. So uh fuel certainly. Uh, I think we've gone through that one uh today in pretty extensive uh detail. So maybe have a little look at the newsletter there. Um, do you like deep yellow as a small cap uranium stock now that Palladium uh paladin is running? Well, yeah, I guess you know, not all uh stocks are created equal, not all um uranium stocks are created equal. Uh of course, we've had uh the issues with BOSS, uh heavy rain as well, uh, so that's not really helped matters. Um, we've got uh deep yellow uh has been under pressure. The results weren't particularly good, um, so that has um really not been great. They made a 7.08 million dollar loss, um, so they're they're spending a bit of money to uh to uh advance their undeveloped uranium projects um and losing the CEO is never a good look, so that that's hurt them as well. And I guess paladin's been in the right place. I did take some profits in Paladin. Um so um is deep yellow the way to go. It's certainly the chart-wise, it's uh it's looking interesting, and I have to say I'm looking around to uh to see what I can replace uh some of my paladin exposure with, and maybe deep yellow is the one to uh replace it with. Uh it certainly um is uh potential there for that. Uh there's certainly a lot of um there's a lot of interest in these uh uranium stocks. Charlie Aiken uh wrote a very extensive uh note this morning on uranium and nuclear. I saw that China has just uh putting in another seven nuclear power plants. Um so um the deferred FID on uh what's it, Tumas uh is obviously an issue. Uh they've got the DFS with Malga Rock in WA due for completion in the third quarter of 26. So these will all be catalysts for the stock. Uh but certainly, you know, uh the sector is hot, it's just a question of how you play it. I have been uh long uh Paladin, I have been long uh Tribeca Global Natural Resources as well, which has done pretty well, probably still trading at a big discount to its NTA. So maybe have a little look at Tribeca, which gives you a bit more of a um diversification. Um ADG was recommended by your gold expert 12 months ago. Wow. Um well they're not numbers on doors, um, it's had a good run and then it's collapsed. Uh is it a hold or a sell, please? Well, um, as I say, these these small caps, I think this is addalong from memory, add along gold. Um, these small caps, you know, they do they are well they are you know they are punter specials, these um they have uh yeah, I mean they have fallen quite hard from their highs. I'm just trying to look uh the uh the amended uh recent presentation. They've sold the Challenger mine, and that is uh let's just have a look at the last presentation before we go flying off and talking rubbish. Um let's just have a little look there. Um high grade Victorian gold antimony system, emerging gold and antimony story, near-term flows, scale production. Um yeah, uh interestingly, my mate Kurt Lingor is uh non-executive director there, so that's uh that's kind of interesting. So um it's uh certainly uh not inspired after that big push higher. I think to be honest, I'd rather play LRV in the antimony and gold space than this one. Um but if you've held it this long and you've seen it at you know uh at much higher levels, three times where it was back at the end of uh last year in October last year, it's probably still a bit of a hold. Um, but you do have to um you do have to uh trade these things. Uh James iPad to everyone am I writing that you own an older Porsche? I'm thinking of buying a Jaguar XKR. Good luck with that. Um, yes, is the answer. I do own an old Porsche uh of Porsche. Um it is uh uh an old 23-year-old um Boxster Manual S, which is one of the well, certainly the best Porsche I've owned, and I've owned this. Is the fourth one I've owned now. I started with the 1957 356A. Sad story that one bought it for 20 grand, sold it for 22 grand, thought it did really well. They're now probably worth about 300 grand. I had two 911s, which I loved, but they did want to kill you. Uh, but the boxer is brilliant. Jags, oh geez, um, yeah, they look gorgeous. I've always fancied a jag. My dad had a jag, but I've always fancied one. But the great thing about a Porsche is they are over-engineered and you know, touch wood, they are extraordinary cars and extraordinary German engineering, and that you can drive out to a racetrack, you can slap a number on the side, you can drive around all day and thrash the hell out of it, take the number off and drive home, and it won't miss a beat. And that is what I love about them. Whereas I think you might find Jaguars a little bit more temperamental. Um all right, enough about cars. How far do you think 40x can run, Charles? Um, how long is a piece of string? To be honest, Charles, uh, I you know, we we first recommended this one at 39 and a half cents when they did the deal with uh Prometicus, when Prometicus took that strategic stake uh around 10%. Uh and you can see there on the chart that I've got up that I did advise trimming, and they did raise some money, and then they took off again to the races uh with uh with more good announcements. And at the time, you know, I was asked uh will 4DX be another Promedicus? And I said categorically no, uh, mainly because I thought that they would be taken out before they got that big. They're a$3.4 billion company. Promedicus is a$15.5 billion company. Now, in terms of relative value, I'd back Pro Medicus. You know, they've got a lot more revenue, they're a lot more established, and they're only what's that four or five times uh the size of 4DX, which is still in in kind of growth phase. So that's kind of where I sit there at the moment. I think Prometicus deserves to be higher, and maybe 40X deserves to just flatline a bit. They did have a bit of a dad bad day today, and you can see maybe if the chart is amongst you, and I know there are some uh for the wiggles and squiggles, um, you could almost say that's a double top, uh, or a head and shoulders, or a um or a panteen shampoo. Who knows? But my my point is that in relative valuation terms, ProMedicus, I reckon, looks a better bet. You know, they can they keep signing big contracts, another$37 million contract renewal with Northwestern the other day. Um I I think Promedicus holds more upside than 40x just at the moment uh on a relative value basis. Uh thanks for the ATA again. I think that's R. Any thoughts on Calix, Hazer, and Vulcan? I've done uh Vulcan. Will Vulcan make us millions? It's gonna make someone millions. Uh Sam, love your question. Is it time to go all in on Bitcoin? Have no idea, Sam. Uh, you might as well go to polymarkets as far as I'm concerned. Um, Calix. Well, they've had a few setbacks, haven't they? Uh, in terms of um you know the Pilbrat thing. I think they're still kind of in the um in the doghouse over that one. Um clearly the market was disappointed in that. Uh obviously, you know, it's still goodish technology, but um it's struggling. I think it's you know it's struggling a little bit. Um I I would probably not be playing the the Calyx game at the moment. Uh the Hazer game. Um let's have a little look at Haze. It has been in a bit of a downtrend for some time. Um and I I've I must admit I like this one. I've seen these guys I've seen these guys present a number of times and they always always impress me. But the share price has really gone well nowhere. Um you know it's it's it's been suboptimal, it's been disappointing. Uh, and you know, I it'd be nice, wouldn't it? It's still, I think, a speculative buy, but you know, they're still trying to scale it up to commercial scale to some extent. So I I think there's probably better or easier ways at the moment to uh to play this market than uh Calix Hazer. And obviously Vulcan we've talked about, but it is probably one for the patient. It is not, you know, it's it's not in the exploring phase, it's found its resource, it knows where it is. Now it's got to construct uh the project, now it's got to construct Lionheart uh to be able to extract the uh the geothermal heat from the brine and to extract the lithium from the brine. So you know the lithium price is uh it's not irrelevant, but it's not the main driver. The main driver is going to be when you see news from uh from the guy from Francis Vadim, um, that you know we're on track on budget and they are fully funded, so they're not having to come to the market. And the German government love these guys, so there's a lot to be said for it. Uh Sam, hi Sam. Uh, is it now time to buy Bitcoin? Um, you know what? I have no idea, no idea, Sam. Um, you might as well bet on two flies going up a wall, as far as I'm concerned. It is, you know, you would think, you know, you listen to the the experts on Bitcoin. I don't think anyone is an expert on Bitcoin, uh, to be honest. Um, they're all just whistling in the dark uh to a massive extent. You know, Kathy Wood come out, comes out with some outrageous, um, you know, outrageous kind of uh price target on Bitcoin, 250,000 and all this sort of stuff. It's just balock a lock at the end of the day, you know, pin the tail on the donkey. You know, I could say this evening, yes, go all in on Bitcoin and buy because it's going to five hundred thousand dollars. I have no idea, Sam, and uh to be honest, not really that bothered to be to be quite honest. I I do ASX um stocks. That that's my bag. Um, I don't do much in the US, obviously, as everyone knows. Uh I'll leave that to uh to Marcus uh and some of the others in the team, but I am more than comfortable with the opportunities that are provided by the ASX 200. There is enough opportunity in our market to satisfy me without having to be up at uh ungodly hours and watching the US markets. Um Daniel Wong, do you think it's best to buy SpaceX as soon as it's this or wait for a while? Or do you think it's probably is overpriced in the first one to two years? Daniel, I have not got a clue. All I remember is that when Facebook came on, it uh had a very inauspicious start. And um I think from memory, because I was on Telly, I went on channel 10, and I think it was oh you're testing me now. I think it was$20, uh, it went to 18, um, and everyone was throwing the the baby out. Maybe 26 went to 18. Anyway, everyone hated it at the time, and look at us now. Now we're trying to ban it for the kids. Um, scambook has become um a ubiquitous thing, it it is extraordinary. The algo, the crap that it pumps at you, if you stay too long on one you know, one little um thing, you are bombarded with adverts and scams and all sorts of things. It's it really has become quite painful, I have to say, Facebook. But there you go, people do love it. As far as SpaceX goes, I have absolutely no idea. Uh, most of the revenue for for SpaceX is coming from Starlink. I think 80% of the revenue uh actually is from the internet services, which is Starlink, as opposed to um what's it called now? X Twitter or Groc or the AI thing. Um all I know is that AI is consuming everything. Our intellects, our jobs, and huge dollops of money. So I have no idea, I'm afraid, Daniel. Um here we go. Uh KC, do you think silver will be run up again this year? ETPMAG is the um is the silver ETF. Uh ETPMAG. Do I think silver is gonna go for a little trot again? Um yeah, I think it will. I I'm still a bull of gold. Uh I still think gold is uh is attractive in an era where the US is$39 trillion worth of debt and rising. In fact, everybody's got more debt, mainly because everyone's spending more money on defence and armaments. Uh, the US budget is going to continue to blow out, interest rates are not going to come down that quickly in the US. Their interest payment alone is going to be over a trillion dollars. Uh, they've got tax um cuts coming. Um, so I think gold is still good, uh, although you know it's obviously settled down a little bit, and that's partly the reason because central banks have been selling uh gold reserves as opposed to uh to buying them, um, you know, filling up vaults in Poland or Turkey with gold. Uh, silver tends to follow, it's a poor man's gold in some respects, but it does also have more industrial usages and solar panels, etc., and um circuitry and weapons guidance systems and all the other things. So um I think at some stage silver will have a bit of a pop again. It got silly, let's face it, it got very silly. Um so you know that is um something to bear in mind. You know, you've you've always got to, as my old boss used to tell me, you've got to feed the turkeys while they gobble because they don't always gobble forever, and you've got to, you know, you've got to sell when you can, not when you have to, to some extent, because you know you've got to sell to buyers, and if there's no buyers, you're gonna struggle. So, yes, I do think it's gonna keep maybe grinding higher rather than exploding higher, but I think it will continue to push higher. John McKinnon asks, uh sadly, Nan, is that Nando's John? Um, or nanosonics. Um, never massive, never been a massive fan of nanosonics. Um, I have to say. Uh they uh Trophon, uh, it's um you know it's the uh they do it's I guess it's a med tech in some respects, but they do the the sterilization technology there, but they did have some issues in terms of uh the new product coming along. Um and I I yeah, I I think um for me there's probably better than NAN at the moment. Um I can't see they haven't had much news to be honest uh recently. They have got a shared buyback in place, which I guess you know that helps. Uh, but um we still uh would like to get a bit more positive news out of them. So uh I just probably park that one for the time being, John. Uh there are others that have done better, and I think we'll continue to do better. Sam, serious question from Sam now. Hi Sam now. Uh WiseTech, have we seen the low? Have we seen the low in Richard White's behavior? That is a good question. It's it's been a frightening ride for WiseTech, and I I joke that it got so low down to what was it, 36 bucks, 37 bucks, that uh Richard White might have to um get him one of his Teslas and and and put the Uber sign on it and uh start driving his friends around because uh things were looking a bit grim. Um it's still one of those stocks that you feel could see AI disruption. However, I think where we're seeing most AI disruption, and certainly talking to some experts in in the in the in the space, is that the the ones that have got uh serious regulation and serious government oversight are are being le and that software that is are being less disrupted than other companies, that it's not so critical. People aren't gonna die, pallets aren't gonna turn up in the wrong place, uh drugs are gonna get smuggled, people are gonna get smuggled. So those sorts of businesses that are embedded And have obviously e-cargo, etc. Um, or one one cargo has that advantage that it is embedded, it has been around a long time, people trust it. There has been some pushback on the pricing there, and obviously they have been caught up in the SAS Mageddon or the SAS Pocalypse. But to say they have seen the low is yeah, I you know, we might see another low in the tech sector, let's face it. Um, but the the the risk reward now I think is more to the upside than the downside with the with the whole sector. Um so that to me is uh is the way to go. Um I would be nibbling on the back foot for WiseTech. I can't see it going back to 80 bucks, but I certainly could see it going back to 60 in you know it's four days, five days of uh of a really good market uh for WiseTech. Of course, we will see results and that will drive it. Um but uh I hope we've seen the low in some of these things. Greg, do you think gold producers or developers are the place to be in gold over the next six months? Well, Greg, I did create a five-stock basket of uh gold explorers and developers. Uh, they are in the uh newsletter, they have been in the newsletter, and uh those baskets will be updated on Monday. Uh if I get time tomorrow morning, uh I may do it, but I'm off to a wedding, so uh we'll see. Probably on Monday, because I usually struggle for things to write about on a Monday unless something dramatic has happened with a tweet on a Sunday night or the US has done something silly again. So probably Monday, but there were five explorers and uh uh and developers that were there. Obviously, it's a different cattle of fish, isn't it, to some extent. Producers and developers, but there's no shortage of money out there for developers. Uh so you know, miners like money, uh, there's no shortage there of money for them to go drilling. Uh producers are going to be making hay while the sun shines, and we've seen that with those um with those cash balances just exploding in the last couple of quarters with um you know gold prices of 6700 Aussie uh being achieved. So I think they're both good. Um and I kind of like uh both explorers, developers, and producers. Uh AL3, someone is asking about, which is in the um in the defense base from memory. Where are we? Let's just get up the uh AL3. Um it's the um yeah, US defense uh supply for FastTech commissioning of large scale Archemy X systems at US uh defense energy and industry supply. I guess the the problem I have with some of these um defence companies um and it's I saw one today, you know, it's a hundred and thirteen million dollar market gap, so it's not huge, and they're getting good contracts. The problem I have is there was a new float for a company, Avorex, I think it is, uh, which raised some money, and it was valued at uh 2.2 billion US dollars, but they had orders of 1.2 billion for their drone systems. Now, we haven't got anywhere near those kind of numbers for EOS or drone shield uh or even AL3. You know, the numbers are still relatively small compared to to some of these US guys. I mean, there's a lot of money being thrown around in defence. It would be lovely if some of it went towards drone shield. We haven't had uh too many announcements from Drone Shield in terms of new contracts. Maybe they're waiting for the new CEO to bed himself in and Hamish McClellan to uh to start driving the ship as uh the non-exec chair. But you know, the the the market's huge, and some of these American companies, you know, buy American, etc., and Ryan Metal in Europe are making a mozza in terms of their orders, whereas yeah, we're we're just I think we're barely scratching the surface, to be honest, I have to say. Um but AL3, it yeah, it looks interesting. Probably a specy buy. Uh, could see 30 again uh on with a good uh good contract, I'd have to say, John. Uh Werner asks, what's happening with DTR? What indeed is happening with DTR? Dateline um Colosseum Rare Earths project in the US. Um, there has been some controversy, and there was an announcement out today. They did raise money, uh, and I've got to say, I'm getting mighty tempted to buy some dateline. I did put it into the uh the gold uh explorer and developer pack uh basket, um, but um you know it's um there was a media article uh in uh the US with uh the National Parks Conservation Association uh uh has been commenced uh legal proceedings um against uh and some of the US federal agencies, a member of the federal government are respondents. The company was not named in the proceedings, but Coliseum, the Golden Rare Earth Project, has been somewhat controversial in terms of its ownership, and obviously owning the project that you're developing is kind of important. Uh so this this one, you know, it rode really high, got above 60 cents. Then we had these these problems with the ownership and court, etc., in the US, um, and the stock crashed back down to 20 cents, it's found its way back, it's raised some money. Uh, they're still carrying out uh activities at Coliseum, and they weren't named in the proceedings. I am getting towards the temptation of buying it, I have to say. So there we go. Um Michael Mins Regal Partners, a bit of a setback with Immutep share price crash. Uh, Regal Partners has had a few setbacks, I have to say. It's not just ImuTEP, uh, they had a setback with Opthia. Uh, so yeah, I mean, if you're investing in biotech stocks, they can be binary outcomes. Um I guess the trick is, and this is something that I tried to get across to members when we put in place the uh the members' basket, those exclusive, not exclusive, they weren't exclusive at all. I pumped them out all over the place. Uh, those um those biotech baskets was diversification. You know, there were five stocks, a bit of diversification, different levels of where they were. Uh, there were five stocks in the number one basket, which is up you know 280%, so you haven't done too badly uh out of that one. Uh, and there was quite a bit of diversification in the second biotech basket, which last time I looked was up about 14% or something. So they've done all right. So that is the the key. Where Regal partners seem to have stuffed up is they had a lot of money in um Opthea, and the same applied to Imutep. And it I know Phil and I know Charlie, and I've you know I followed Regal for a long time. Um, Phil is a very smart guy. We've had him on the podcast before, he is a very smart guy, um, but sometimes you know, sometimes we lead with our heart, not our head, on some of these investments in biotechs, and and clearly they've been caught out in a couple, and it does sort of go to a question of um of their exposure. I did talk to Charlie about it, and he said, you know, what it wasn't it's not a big deal in the big scheme of things, so um there we go. Um I'm gonna have to whip through some of these a bit quicker, I think, because we're coming to the end. Uh oh, hang on. Um Sam says, one last question before you go to enjoy a nice bottle of red with your wife. What's the outlook for DXB? Um, it was one of my stocks of the year DXB. Um, it is still in the biotech basket. I did sell it in the small cap basket at um I think it was 31 cents. Um, it is uh it's not a binary outcome, but it is very much dependent on trials and tests. If it if it works, you know, if it does what it says on the tin, it will be a bit like uh neuron pharmacy in terms of pharmaceuticals, in terms of the royalty stream upfront payments, it will um you know open the box. So there is that. So we're just waiting for trial results, really, Sam, on that one. Uh Julian asked about semi and IKO. Do you think they might rally if tensions ease in the Middle East? Um, well, I think SEMI uh has already rallied, hasn't it? That looks like a rally to me. Um I have to say, Julian, that looks like uh a decent rally um from those um sort of end of March lows. So uh will they continue to rally? I got the feeling they will, uh I have to say. IKO is uh South Korea. Well, South Korea is basically TSMC, isn't it? Uh sorry, that's Taiwan. Uh South Korea is basically um uh you know semiconductors as well. Um so it has been extraordinarily volatile South Korea, uh obviously hostage to to oil to some extent, but you know, if if we do get um tension, well tensions have eased, let's face it, that's why the market is at record highs. Tensions have eased. We're not in the situation where we've got missiles and rockets flying above our heads, and you've got influencers in Dubai running for the hills saying, I never thought this could happen here, I thought it was just tax-free fun. So, you know, that there's a bit of that involved. So I would imagine that if we continue to see uh or we do see some sort of peace deal between uh Trump and um whoever is in charge in Iran, um, we will continue to see IKO and S S EMI semi doing alright. Um can you indulge me with another? Any thoughts on PNV? Well, no skin off my nose. Uh Nova Sorb. Uh God, it's been tough, hasn't it? This one has been tough. Lots and lots of shorts in this, and you know the the problem with the the heavily shorted stocks is that um the guys that are short stocks in a bull market, they do their research. 13.7% of the stock is shorted, and that has dropped a little bit, but that's 90, it's nearly 95 million shares. Now you can't tell me that they're not going to leap on every single piece of negative news, plant negative news in the press, and try and rumourage these things down. Um, they do have the occasional blip up when the shorts get caught by something, but generally it is problematic if you're long these things when everyone else is short. 13% is is a fair go in a stock which um you know doesn't trade you know huge volumes necessarily on a daily basis. Um, 700 million dollar market cap uh for that one, and where have we got? We had results at the end of February. Clearly, the market wasn't that impressed. I had a fire at their RD facility. Um, it I think it's a great product, uh Nova Sorb, but it's just been hard work. Um, and you know, there's a Vita uh AVH, which is kind of in the same space that has had a bit of a renaissance, but it's starting to see some profit taking. Uh, you know, I I kind of like Polynovo, um, but it has been hard to be a bull of that one. I know they also had a quite a colourful chair from memory. Uh was it David Williams? Uh anyway. Um, so maybe sideways, but um, you know, it's if it got back to uh 90 cents, it'd probably be a buy there. If it um started poking up to$1.10,$1.15, I think I'd probably be a seller is the answer. Uh what have we got?$6.27. Uh Jeff, appreciate your view on MM1. They had a good day today. Midas, didn't they? Everything they touched turns to gold, as they say. But we know that Midas came to a bit of a sticky end uh in the uh in the end in the Greek and Roman myth. Um where are we? Uh initial resource, uh, copper and silver resource. Uh they got an investor presentation about Otavi. Um, so that's been out. Uh it's raised uh what is it 28 million bucks on uh very recently at 75 cents a share. I I would you know they always say this, don't they? Placement received strong support from both new and existing domestic and international institutionals. Investors is going in the ground in Namibia, the copper, silver, gold project in Namibia. Um, I have to say, um I have to say, you know, if you if you've got the stock at 75 cents and it's trading at what is it 91, I'll be happy to liberate a few there. Um, I'd be a buyer probably around the 75 cent level. Um, but you know, there's probably a bit of stock to come out, a bit of indigestion. So uh maybe that will take a while to work through, but certainly, you know, it's in the right place with the right stuff. So there we go. Uh Michael sold out. I did sell out a PE1. Do you think it still has legs? Um, it probably has got legs and it knows how to use them. Um I did sell out of it. Um, yeah, various reasons really. Uh I mainly because I was tidying up the uh the portfolio. I sold out of a few things that maybe um maybe I shouldn't have done. Maybe I should have done. Um that is my lot. There's only me. But um, yeah, I just had a bit of a tidy up and uh was a little bit concerned at the time about private credit. There was a lot of focus on that. That seems to have diminished. We seem to have moved on from private credit and we're on to other things. Um obviously the SpaceX is um is the draw card there, and you kind of you know, the boys on Wall Street are gonna pump it up, aren't they? We're gonna have pictures of rockets like you won't believe the prospectus will just be a joy. It'll be a collector's item. There'll be pictures of moon, Mars, other planets, there'll be pictures of Elon smiling benevolently over his family and his children. It'll be a magnificent piece of work. Uh and I'm sure it will go well because Wall Street will want it to go well. Uh PE1, I guess, is one of the few ways that you can get exposure to it in Australia. Um, if you're just playing that that way of things, um, we did have the monthly performance out uh just this week. Uh the net asset value a dollar 70, one month performance, 3.4% in March, which is which is actually pretty good because some people had an absolute shocker in March. Uh, you know, Jun Boo, uh, some of the other fund managers had an absolute Barry Crocker. Um, there is an old theory in finance uh that the answer is nine. No matter what anybody asks you, if you don't know the answer, just say nine. Interestingly, the performance of Pengana private equity over its uh lifestyle life period, nine nine percent three years, six point one. So, you know, let's let's face it, you've you've joined the elite, you've invested in private equity, you think you're really, really special, and over three years you got a six percent return. I'm sorry, but that ain't special. SpaceX or no SpaceX, that ain't special. Um, so there we go. Um thanks for Pizza and Pino. Um, so yeah, I mean nine nine is the answer. If anyone ever asks you what the um you know what anything is, nine, just tell them nine, it always works. All right, well, that's about it from me. Thanks very much for listening. Thanks very much for your participation this evening. Great questions, as always. Uh, this uh webinar will be available as a podcast very shortly afterwards. I do that quite quickly, and it will be available as a video uh next week when the uh the team uh can cut it down, splice and dice. But uh as always, thanks for your support. Thanks for tuning in. And if anyone is uh around in Melbourne uh at the beginning of May, I'm gonna be down on the Melbourne uh ASA conference. We've got an afternoon session on the Sunday the 3rd, not on Star Wars Day, which is May the 4th, be with you. Uh we have a session on the Sunday afternoon. Nadine, Andrew Wyland, and I are going to be talking ETFs and stock specific. At least I think that's what we're talking about. We haven't worked it out yet, but um that'll be interesting. And stay tuned next week uh when we get the um all clear from Munro Partners in in terms of compliance uh for the podcast I did with Nick Griffin because I think it is an absolute cracker, and Nick has some fantastic things to say. So that's it. Have a great weekend. Thanks for tuning in, thanks for your support, and uh stay safe out there.